{"id":4076,"date":"2021-12-13T14:27:32","date_gmt":"2021-12-13T13:27:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neu.hqam.ch\/quality-top-strategies-factor-returns-or-real-alpha\/"},"modified":"2023-06-10T15:46:20","modified_gmt":"2023-06-10T13:46:20","slug":"quality-top-strategies-factor-returns-or-real-alpha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/quality-top-strategies-factor-returns-or-real-alpha\/","title":{"rendered":"Quality top strategies \u2013 factor returns or real alpha?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"4076\" class=\"elementor elementor-4076 elementor-3196\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c6de011 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c6de011\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c0b47f9\" data-id=\"c0b47f9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6aac3c7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6aac3c7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Approaches based on modern portfolio theory (MPT) have dominated the financial industry for 60 years. Thinking in terms of factors such as value and size has deeply shaped the industry on both the provider and investor side. Institutional investors typically make their equity asset allocation decisions based on dimensions such as size, value vs. growth or quality and other factors; and the range of investment strategies offered by asset managers is typically guided by the same categories. Active management beyond factor returns (smart beta) is considered a difficult undertaking, and achieving outperformance based on publicly available information is even considered impossible.   <\/p>\n<p>These and other insights of the modern financial industry were considered indisputable just a few years ago. Today, they are still omnipresent, but are viewed more critically. <\/p>\n<p>One of the challenges to MPT is a few active managers who regularly and systematically beat their benchmark. This includes the Quality approach of H\u00e9rens Quality AM with its track record of over 20 years. The ability to generate excess returns is particularly evident in concentrated Quality Top strategies.  <\/p>\n<p><em>Fig.1: Performance &amp; risk metrics of H\u00e9rens Quality Top strategies*<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3200\" src=\"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"2048\" height=\"844\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1.webp 2048w, https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1-300x124.webp 300w, https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1-1024x422.webp 1024w, https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1-768x317.webp 768w, https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Picture4Dec-2048x844-1-1536x633.webp 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2048px) 100vw, 2048px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Source: H\u00e9rens Quality AM, MSCI, Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In this context, the question arises whether the achieved outperformance is the result of factor returns i.e. exposures to systematic risk factors, so-called smart beta, and\/or pure alpha), i.e. the result of special skills in stock selection?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Quality alpha stands up to factor analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We investigate the issue empirically using Fama-French\u2019s 3 and 5 factor model, drawing on the 7-year track record of the Global Quality Top 8 strategy, whose approach has been described in previous issues of CEI. The Fama-French model was originally an empirical model that was not initially preceded by any economic theory. The results were only subsequently explained by risk characteristics.   <\/p>\n<p>The following results in Table 2 show Quality Top strategies as an alpha supplier whose excess returns can only be partially explained by smart beta or investing in systematic risk factors. Here are the results in detail: <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Quality Top 8 <strong>has a significant and positive alpha<\/strong> in all models, including the 5-factor model. Alpha measures the outperformance or underperformance of the strategy that cannot be explained by the risk factors used in the model. <\/li>\n<li>With a <strong>beta of<\/strong> <strong>less than 1<\/strong>, Quality Top 8 invests in shares that are \u201csafer\u201d or less volatile than the market. An investment in Top 8 thus has a risk-reducing effect on the investor\u2019s overall equity portfolio. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Negative size effect<\/strong>: The results show a negative influence of the size factor (SMB) on the Top 8 performance and reflect the tendency to invest in larger stocks. The strategy thus does not benefit from the empirically proven small-cap effect, according to which smaller-capitalised stocks generate an above-average return. <\/li>\n<li><strong>Negative or redundant value effect<\/strong>: The value factor (HML) is also empirically proven and states that stocks that are rather cheap in terms of a low book value in relation to the market generate above-average returns. The analysis shows a significant and slightly negative exposure to the value factor for the Quality TOP 8 strategy in the 3-factor model and reflects the tendency to buy shares that tend to be expensive in terms of a low book value relative to the market (growth tilt). In the 5-factor model, the value factor is no longer significant. This is consistent with results of Fama-French, according to which the average return of the value factor, through its exposure to the profitability and investment factors (RMW and CMA), is incorporated into these two factors.   <\/li>\n<li><strong>Positive profitability effect<\/strong>: The profitability factor (RMW), which is also empirically based, states that companies with a high operating profitability perform better. For Quality Top 8, the exposure is positive and significant, i. e. part of the outperformance can be explained \u2013 unsurprisingly for a quality strategy \u2013 by the investment in companies with above-average profitability. <\/li>\n<li><strong style=\"font-size: 16px;\">No investment effect:<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"> The investment factor means that shares of companies with high investments (measured by total asset growth) underperform. In the case of Quality Top 8, the investment factor (CMA) is not significant, i. e. it does not contribute to explaining the outperformance. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Fig.2: Factor sensitivities of the active returns of the H\u00e9rens Quality Global Top 8 Composite<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3202\" src=\"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2021_Dec_chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"521\" height=\"273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2021_Dec_chart.png 521w, https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/2021_Dec_chart-300x157.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 521px) 100vw, 521px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Values with 5% significance are printed in bold<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Overall, the model has a fairly high explanatory power: the coefficient of determination R-squared measures how much of the variability in outperformance can be explained by the factors used in the model. An R2 of 80% shows that 80% of the data fit the regression model, i.e. the significant factors explain 80% of the outperformance of the top 8 strategy. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Quality alpha \u2013 a combination of factor returns and pure alpha<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The results show that part \u2013 but not all \u2013 of the outperformance of the Quality Top 8 strategy is due to the systematic use of the profitability factor (RMW), the rest is pure alpha. Now, proponents of MPT or the efficient markets hypothesis would speak of randomness rather than true alpha at this point. Whether H\u00e9rens Quality AM was simply just lucky so far in managing the Quality Top strategies or, on the contrary, has given prove of skill, the investor must form his own opinion on this. To support him in his opinion-forming process, we will provide further arguments in the following issues of the CEI why outperformance is no coincidence and should continue.   <\/p>\n<p><em>*Global Quality Top 15: Portfolio performance: Gross TR (excl. transaction and management costs, dividends reinvested. Simulated performance 01.10.2014 01.10.2018, fully based on monthly investment process of H\u00e9rens Quality AM; Live track record since 01.10.2018) <\/em><br \/><em>** Zeitraum: Oktober 2014 bis August 2021. rtTop8 \u2013 rtf = \u03b1 +\u03b21 (MKTt \u2013 rtf)+ \u03b22SMBt + \u03b23HMLt +\u03b5t. . Die zu erkl\u00e4rende Variable sind die monatlichen Brutto-\u00dcberrenditen des H\u00e9rens Global Quality Top 8 Composite in USD (monatl. Renditen minus risikoloser Zins). Die erkl\u00e4renden Variablen sind die Monatsrenditen der Fama French-Faktoren Size und Value sowie die \u00dcberrenditen des Marktes (Markt minus risikoloser Zins).    <\/em><br \/><em>*** Period: October 2014 to May 2019. rtTop8 \u2013 rtf = \u03b1 +\u03b21 (MKTt \u2013 rtf) + \u03b22SMBt + \u03b23HMLt +\u03b24RMWt + \u03b25CMAt + \u03b5t.. The variable being explained is the monthly gross outperformance of the HQAM Global Quality Top 8 Composite (composite return less risk-free rate of return). The explanatory variables are the monthly returns produced by the factors Size (SMB), Value (HML), High Profitability (RMW) and Low Investment (CMA), as well as the outperformance produced by the market (market less risk-free rate of return). Abbreviations: SMB = Small Minus Big; HML = High Minus Low; RMW = Robust Minus Weak; and CMA = Conservative Minus Aggressive.   <\/em><\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-095d3d0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"095d3d0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/HQAM_Monthly_Insight_2021_GER-December.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">View article as PDF<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Approaches based on modern portfolio theory (MPT) have dominated the financial industry for 60 years. Thinking in terms of factors such as value and size has deeply shaped the industry on both the provider and investor side. Institutional investors typically make their equity asset allocation decisions based on dimensions such as size, value vs. growth [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-corporate-excellence-insights-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4076"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4077,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4076\/revisions\/4077"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hqam.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}